Liberal Democrats and Iraq War

Sir Menzies Campbell,

On the Liberal Democrats’ website, the Lib Dems on Iraq’s page reads:

Casualties
Over 2,400 coalition soldiers have been killed, including 101 British armed forces personnel. Well over 15,000 Iraqi civilians have died, and thousands more injured – in military operations and the ensuing insurgency. (Figures correct to February 16th 2006.)

The Iraq Body Count website, that simply records the Iraqi civilians deaths reported in the English language media with an online website, has now counted 37,943 CIVILIAN DEATHS. On the IBC website, you may read: “It is likely that many if not most civilian casualties will go unreported by the media.”

A few weeks ago, the Independent wrote:

“But IBC admits that with the increasing inability of journalists to move around and report freely, its method of monitoring civilian deaths is becoming increasingly inaccurate. What evidence has emerged indicates that a widely ridiculed study published in The Lancet in autumn 2004, estimating that at least 100,000 civilians had died violently since the war began, might not be so inaccurate.” (“Iraq: The reckoning” , Patrick Cockburn and Raymond Whitaker , The Independent, 12 March 2006)

On 29 October 2004, the British medical journal The Lancet published ‘Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey’:

Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. (Interpretation)

Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. (Findings)

Source: Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey, The Lancet, Published online October 29,2004


"The researchers found that the majority of deaths were attributed to violence, which were primarily the result of military actions by Coalition forces. Most of those killed by Coalition forces were women and children... Eighty-four percent of the deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths were due to air strikes and artillery." ('Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Dramatically After Invasion', October 28, 2004)

The Financial Times, on November 19, 2004 wrote:

“This survey technique has been criticised as flawed, but the sampling method has been used by the same team in Darfur in Sudan and in the eastern Congo and produced credible results. An official at the World Health Organisation said the Iraq study ‘is very much in the league that the other studies are in ... You can't rubbish (the team) by saying they are incompetent‘”. (Stephen Fidler, 'Lies, damned lies and statistics,' Financial Times, November 19, 2004)

The Chronicle of Higher Education on January 27, 2005 wrote

“’Les has used, and consistently uses, the best possible methodology,’ says Bradley A. Woodruff, a medical epidemiologist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Indeed, the United Nations and the State Department have cited mortality numbers compiled by Mr. Roberts on previous conflicts as fact -- and have acted on those results. (...) Mr. Roberts has studied mortality caused by war since 1992, having done surveys in locations including Bosnia, Congo, and Rwanda. His three surveys in Congo for the International Rescue Committee, a nongovernmental humanitarian organization, in which he used methods akin to those of his Iraq study, received a great deal of attention. ‘Tony Blair and Colin Powell have quoted those results time and time again without any question as to the precision or validity,’ he says.” (Researchers Who Rushed Into Print a Study of Iraqi Civilian Deaths Now Wonder Why It Was Ignored, by LILA GUTERMAN, The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 27, 2005)

According to Les Roberts (Center for International Emergency Disaster and Refugee Studies at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, one of the world’s top epidemiologists and lead author of the Lancet report) there might be as many as 300,000 Iraqi civilian deaths (Do Iraqi Civilian Casualties Matter?, By Les Roberts, AlterNet, February 8, 2006)

The same Lib Dems on Iraq’s page reads: “The war in Iraq is the biggest mistake that this Government has made.”

QUESTION: Do the Liberal Democrats consider the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians a “mistake”?

QUESTION: Will the Iraqi civilian deaths’ figures on the Liberal Democrats’ website be corrected?


Thank you for your time and I look forward for your comments.

Kind regards,
Gabriele Zamparini

P.S. Here some important articles regarding the Iraqi civilian deaths.

Researchers Who Rushed Into Print a Study of Iraqi Civilian Deaths Now Wonder Why It Was Ignored, by LILA GUTERMAN, The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 27, 2005

When Promoting Truth Obscures the Truth: More on Iraqi Body Count and Iraqi Deaths, by Stephen Soldz, ZNet, February 05, 2006

BURYING THE LANCET - PART 1

BURYING THE LANCET - PART 2

BURYING THE LANCET – Update

Do Iraqi Civilian Casualties Matter?, By Les Roberts, AlterNet, February 8, 2006

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UPDATE - 21 APRIL 2006

I had a telephone conversation with Foreign Affairs Advisor Matthew Waldman of the Liberal Democrats.

He seemed to know who I am. Flattering?

He said the Lib-Dem will update the figures of 15,000 to....... 30,000

I asked where this figure comes from. He said “the United Nations”

I asked to explain... He couldn’t remember where and which study was, but he was positive that there was a new study by the UN in Iraq or the Security Council or some update that put the number to 30,000

I did explain the "Lancet study" (immediately he said “that study said until 100,000). No, it doesn’t... Blah, blah.... But he wasn’t impressed...

So I asked why the UK Lib Dem party doesn’t accept a study published by the UK prestigious medical journal The Lancet. He said “We rely on the UN”

I told that IBC counted .... He didn’t let me end.... And said... "Well, it’s almost the same, isn’t it?"

I explained IBC COUNTED almost 40,000. So why the Lib Dem party will update its figure to 30,000? He said: “We rely on the UN”.

I asked if he could tell me about this UN report... He seemed to be looking for it but “unfortunately I can’t find it at the moment”

I also told him: “Maybe your party doesn’t rely on the Lancet because it presents uncomfortable figures. You know that most of the killings were made by the coalition forces through air bombings...” He seemed too busy to look for that UN report, so he didn't comment on that.

I waited a long time for him to find this UN study. But – unfortunately – he couldn’t find it.

***

UPDATE - 24 April 2006

It seems that the pressing to the Lib-Dem has given some results. They mention the Lancet study and link to.... Wikipedia!

Casualties
Over 2,500 coalition soldiers have been killed in military operations and the ensuing insurgency, including more than 100 British armed forces personnel. The deaths of more than 30,000 Iraqi civilians have been individually documented, and the figure may be far higher - The Lancet estimated total deaths up to October 2004 at 98,000. (Figures correct to April 22nd 2006.)