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Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Iraq Body Count - NOT JUST NUMBERS!

On 8 May 2006 on Channel 4 documentary, 'Iraq - The Hidden Story' - Channel 4's journalist Jon Snow said:
"According to the most authoritative source, something like 35,000 lives have been lost in the last 3 years." (With the caption: Source - Iraq Body Count - www.iraqbodycount.net)
Jon Snow is talking over the images of a car bombing. So, who's responsible for the "lives [that] have been lost in the last 3 years." ?

Iraq Body Count Co-Founder and Oxford Research Group's Executive Director John Sloboda was on CNN on July 19, 2005:
Joining us now from London is IraqBodyCount.net co-founder, John Sloboda. He is also co-author of a new book, "A Dossier of Civilian Casualties in Iraq 2003-2005."

Certainly, the research is there, John. I don't think anyone doubts that. What's the most surprising thing from your latest compilation?

JOHN SLOBODA, AUTHOR, "DOSSIER OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN IRAQ": Well, one of the things which has really, I think, shocked a lot of us is the fact that since the end of the invasion back in May 2003, there has been a steady, month-on-month increase in the number of civilians killed by anti-occupation forces, insurgents and crime. So that there were double the numbers kill in the second year of the occupation than there were in the first.

HOLMES: And who's doing the killing, John?

SLOBODA: Well, currently, the vast majority of killing is being done by anti-occupation insurgents, criminals and unknown agents. We just don't know who a lot of them are.

That is a complete reversal from the situation in the beginning of the conflict, when, of course, in the first six-week phase of the war, the vast majority of deaths were caused by U.S. bombs and aerial raids.
Mr. Sloboda's words are in total contradiction with the findings of the "Lancet study":
On 29 October 2004, the British medical journal The Lancet published ‘Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey’:

Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. (Interpretation)

Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. (Findings)

Source: Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey, The Lancet, Published online October 29,2004

This study reads:

"The researchers found that the majority of deaths were attributed to violence, which were primarily the result of military actions by Coalition forces. Most of those killed by Coalition forces were women and children... Eighty-four percent of the deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths were due to air strikes and artillery." ('Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Dramatically After Invasion', October 28, 2004)
As if this contradiction were not disturbing enough, "John Sloboda took up his appointment as Executive Director of Oxford Research Group in January 2004."

On December 2005 Oxford Research Group published "Iraqi Liberation? Towards an Integrated Strategy"

Because of this Oxford Research Group's study, Iraq Body Count Co-Founder and Oxford Research Group's Executive Director John Sloboda, who co-authored this study was expelled by the international anti-war network BRussells Tribunal.
Dear friends,
John Sloboda has been excluded from the BRussells Tribunal. Not because of the conflict about IBC, but because he's apparently heading the Oxford Research Group, a think tank. They published this report recently: http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/books/iraqiliberation.htm .
Because of this report, that is in total opposition with everything the BT stands for, he really cannot be a part of our network.
Thought I'd let you know.
Dirk.
A few days ago, independent journalist Dahr Jamail wrote:
By far and away the survey that comes closest to the true number of dead in Iraq to date was the one conducted for the Lancet. Yet even Les Roberts, the lead author of that report and one of the world's top epidemiologists with the Center for International Emergency Disaster and Refugee Studies at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said this February that there might be as many as 300,000 Iraqi civilian deaths generated by the US invasion and occupation. So as not to skew the results, it is important to note that the survey did not include areas where major combat had occurred such as Fallujah, Najaf, and Sadr City - home to roughly three million Iraqis.

Any news agency, government, or other organization reporting anything less are actively attempting to hide the level of slaughter and mayhem and thus aiding and abetting the ongoing war crimes in Iraq.

My aforementioned friend in Fallujah is both frustrated and angry that most news agencies choose not to report the number of dead in Iraq more accurately. "I know there are some organizations who claim that they have an accurate count, which is less than 40,000 dead Iraqis," he wrote me recently. He went on to reference Bush Junior, "And as if that number itself isn't shameful enough for the US and the whole world to see. Anyone claiming that low number who calls himself a humanitarian is a shameful guy."
The "man behind Iraq Body Count", John Sloboda, recently gave an interview to "responsible media" BBC:
"I think it's because we don't fit into their worldview. The hard left and the hard right, they're both utterly rigid, and the stuff that's going on in the middle, they can't handle.

They want certainty. They want something they can latch onto and say - this is what I believe.

They like the sense of being a beleaguered minority.

What's most chilling is if you look at people's allegiance to much more dangerous causes than either of our critics are adopting. This is also the mindset that draws angry young men towards terrorism. And it's ultimately self-destructive." - John Sloboda, "the man behind Iraq Body Count"
For the BBC's role in this waltz, please read "THE BBC SMEARS MEDIA LENS - an email exchange with the BBC"

71 Comments:

Blogger Bruno said...

Good for you for mentioning Les Roberts' Lancet study. Most people try to avoid it. Even that is somewhat dated, though. The figures must be much higher by now.

2:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Three big errors in your blog mate:

Mr. Sloboda's words are in total contradiction with the findings of the "Lancet study":On 29 October 2004, the British medical journal The Lancet published ‘Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey’:

Your are distorting stuff just like your pals at Media Lens.

When did Sloboda say those words? What period does the Lancet Study cover?

Sloboda is talking about NOW (that quote is from 2005) and the Lancet Study had already been published for nearly a year.

Do us a favour and make some more accurate comparisons.

Big Error 2: Repeating the Lancet Study's error that "Eighty-four percent" of violent deaths were caused by the Coalition doesn't make it right.

They are wrong. You are foolish to use that incorrect figure to prop up your arguments.

Likewise, Big Error 3: repeating Dahr Jamail's "factor of five or ten" claim doesn't make it any more laughable than it was when Les Robert's first made the claim on the basis of his incorrect figure work.

Why don't you spend an hour reading the IBC rebuttal?

I'll make the same offer that I made to the Media Lens people and help you with with figures if you like.

Regards from your pal the g33kThug

http://www.idea-digital.com/blog/blog.html

for more debunking of Media Lens & Zamparini distortions.

9:05 PM  
Blogger The Cat's Dream said...

Dear Anonymous,

Thanks for taking the time to post your comment.

I have read the IBC's rebuttal. I have not been impressed.

Best wishes,
Gabriele Zamparini

11:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I take it that you only find things that agree with your agenda *impressive*?

If you'd really read the rebuttal you'd be aware that the "factor of five or ten" undercount is based on Les Roberts' attributing an incorrect daily death rate to the IBC.

This figure has since been corrected (the real figure is nearly double) in the original publication.

Yet, you still choose to use quotations based on the original incorrect figure.

Is it because 5-10 times sounds much more impressive than 2-3 times?

Regards from g33kThug

11:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

g33,

the misinformation (Roberts' "300,000", 84% coalition-caused..etc.) contained in zamparini's blog posting has a much higher degree of "truthiness" than mere facts.

Why insist on presenting facts when the truthy claims are so much more impressive?

12:09 AM  
Blogger Donald said...

Speaking of facts vs. truthiness, you can download the latest Brookings Institute figures for Iraq at their website and you'll find that they estimate the US has killed or detained 750-3000 insurgents each month from the beginning of the war until now. A typical month is about 2000. They freely admit that the numbers are very rough and that a factor of 4 increase that occurred from October to November 2003 might reflect better data (i.e., the military being more forthcoming) than any actual change in the situation.

Two points here--First, the press and think tanks like the Brookings Institute can't determine how much violence the US is inflicting unless the US military tells them. Second, when you look at IBC's figures for the numbers killed by US forces in a given month, you'll find that in most months the numbers are in the low dozens. You may believe the US can kill or capture 2000 insurgents in a given month and only kill a few dozen civilians in the process. I suspect it's like Vietnam, where anyone killed or captured by the US is an insurgent by definition.

But go right ahead and believe that the press through its omniscience can check all these things for itself.

One other point, now that I think about it. It's true that the Lancet paper doesn't support the notion that most civilians in Iraq are killed by air strikes, unless you include Fallujah. But the Lancet authors were being politically correct-they said that only three deaths occurred at the hands of US ground forces. But those three deaths represent 9000 actual deaths. One was a 56 year old man who might have been a combatant, one was a 72 year old man shot at a checkpoint and a third was an armed guard shot by accident. The Lancet authors were trying to say that US soldiers were not guilty of widespread wrongdoing and emphasized the air strike casualties instead, but all the same, their data implies many thousands of accidental killings by US ground troops, far in excess of what you'd infer from IBC figures, where nearly all deaths from US forces either occurred in the invasion phase or at Fallujah. I don't agree with the Lancet team's claim that the New England Journal of Medicine statistic supports a death toll of over 100,000, but if 14 percent of returning soldiers and 28 percent of the Marines think they were responsible for killing civilians, it also sounds like a huge number of killings by the US are going unreported and therefore don't make it into IBC's database, except maybe as "unknown".

4:02 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More information related to this article here:

http://home.btconnect.com/idea/blog/blog.html

"Feel the Love"

5:21 PM  
Anonymous Nigel Smith said...

I find it very revealing that g33kthug doesn't allow comments on his own blog - a blog so rational, well-argued and scientific that it includes references to
"A bunch of corduroy-clad, intellectual lefties"
and that old classic benchmark of "reason" -
"An ordinary person".
Nothing ordinary about the g33k; what a sad and misguided character.

3:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nige scrawled:

> Nothing ordinary about the g33k;
> what a sad and misguided character.

You'll find me at PoV:

http://members.boardhost.com/DT3rd/index.html

Why don't you swing by and prove how *sad* and *misguided* I am?

I won't hold my breath.

--
g33kThug

11:37 PM  
Blogger Byron Black said...

While I believe it's of vital importance to discuss Iraqi casaulties, I believe your endorsement of the Lancet study is unfortunate. The task of determining the Lancet method is complicated because they don't explicitly publish the details of their analysis, but because of my graduate studies in econometrics, I can infer that they assume that the distribution of deaths in their sample is normal (i.e. the famous bell shaped curve), which is why they chose the middle number of in their wide confidence internval (8,000 to 200,000).

Alas, their is no justification for assuming a normal distribution and instead, as I show on my blog, the pattern of deaths are, if anything, exponentially distributed. Two years into the war, when the ORG study was published, most areas of Iraq had death rates less than or equal to Washington DC, and in most cases they were effectively nil. On the other hand, a few cities, such as Baghdad (which had half of all deaths) and Falluja had extremely high death rates. The Lancet methodology adjusts for this only superficially, and not when they calculate their maximum likelihood estimators. Therefore, their numbers are grossly inflated, and should be much closer to the Oxford Research Group study, which correctly shows that the insurgents, terrorists, and militias are responsible for the overwhelming majority of Iraqi civilian deaths. The coalition itself is responsible for somewhere between 10,000 to 17,000, and this number is dropping as aerial bombardments have been reduced post-invasion.
see www.thecosmopolis.blogspot.com for detailed analysis.

4:02 AM  
Blogger The Cat's Dream said...

Thanks Byron Black.

You are making quite a confusion between ORG and IBC. I would suggest to get a better understanding on what you wrote in your comment, maybe reading the IBC's and the ORG's studies.

About the Lancet, you write: "but because of my graduate studies in econometrics, I can infer that".

The so-called Lancet study was done by a team by three universities with experts who worked in the filed for years and their studies have been used and praised by the UN and the whole scientific community. The Lancet is a well known medical journal and before publishing a study there is a peer review of it.

In other words, the Lancet is science while the Iraq Body Count is nothing about science and all about propaganda.

From: Propaganda and Haditha
By Dahr Jamail and Jeff Pflueger

t r u t h o u t | Perspective
Friday 09 June 2006

"(...) The organization Iraq Body Count (IBC) immediately endorsed this, clearly demonstrating how its tally of Iraqi civilian deaths due to the war is way below the actual numbers. Exclusively referencing samples from the Western media that willingly embrace the official propaganda, IBC can hardly constitute an unbiased or truthful source of information.

"In April 2006, their database of media sources cited an AP story and a Reuters story from November 20, 2005, along with a March 21, 2006, London Times article. This is how IBC distilled the stories; "Haditha - fighting between US Marines and insurgents-gunfire" and the number of civilians killed was recorded as 15. It is difficult to understand why IBC has once again opted to cite US fabrications mindlessly repeated by the Western media rather than take into account the readily available English translation of al-Jazeera's Haditha report.

"On June 6, 2006, the Haditha Massacre is recorded by IBC as "family members in their houses and students in a passing car" and the declared number of victims is 24. One cannot help wonder how many uncorrected, unverified and unchallenged pieces of US military propaganda lurk in IBC's database. Haditha could be just the tip of the iceberg.

"It wasn't until four months after the event that the Western corporate media started to straighten out the story. On March 19, 2006, it was Time Magazine that "broke" the Haditha story in a piece titled "Collateral Damage or Civilian Massacre in Haditha." The primary sources for this piece were a video shot by an Iraqi journalism student produced the day after the massacre and interviews conducted with witnesses. Another glaring evidence of how a few simple interviews with Iraqis and some readily available photographs and video can drastically correct the glaring errors in the Western media's representations of the occupation. (...)"

All the best,
Gabriele Zamparini

1:07 PM  
Blogger Byron Black said...

Before you again imply that I haven't read the studies, let me just say that I am attempting to address the violent deaths. It is absurd to think that infant mortality and other health indicators and living indicators aren't improving rapidly (though not as rapidly as they'd be if the Bush administration had competently planned for the post-invasion phase) as more hospitals, roads, roads, electric and communication infrastructure are built, doctors trained, and reconstruction money and investment flows into the country. In fact, the UN estimated that per capita income growth during Saddam's regime was -9.6%. Now the IMF is predicting 10% growth for 2006 after 4% growth in 2005. This means higher Iraqi incomes, and more tax dinars for public spending. According to the UNDP, Adult literacy was 35% even in 1990 (pre-sanctions), youth literacy was 40% in 2003, life expectancy was 58 pre-invasion (even this was probably neglecting, due to Baath manipulation of data, the hidden murders of thousands)
http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/countries.cfm?c=IRQ2). The violent death rate during Saddam's reign could be estimated from 90 to 120 per day, over 24 years!. Even if the insurgency went on for 25 more years at the rate it is now, Iraqis would be better off.

The key point in understanding the Lancet survey is their use of Maximum Likelihood Estimation. To that end, you can read about it at wikipedia,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_likelihood

or

see it in action athttp://www-econo.economia.unitn.it/new/pubblicazioni/papers/3_05_bee.pdf


Citing the problems faced by statisticians that use Maximum Likelihood Estimation, the author, an economist from Italy, writes,

"First, the appropriateness of
the lognormal model should not be taken for granted: it has often been noted that
the severity distribution is heavy-tailed; in this case, Extreme Value Theory has
sometimes been proposed (see Embrechts et al. 2003 for a thorough analysis)"

Said otherwise, when using MLE, as the Lancet study does, the distriubtion that one assumes is very important in determing the accuracy of the results.

My argument is that they chose a normal distribution when it was in reality closer to exponential, but probably even more extreme than that. I prove this my looking at the ORG/IBC data which reports where the deaths occurred. The ORG study picks the 15 most violent studies and even there the distribution is extreme, if the rest of the country is included (like the 12/18 provinces where violent deaths are nill). I conclude, that their results are widely off.

I'm not the only one to dismiss the Lancet study, but most cite their extremely wide confidence interval, while I'm one of the few critics to actually challenge it on procedural grounds. This is due to the fact that only a handful of scientists in the world use MLE, which is extremely complicated, and most of them are physical scientists and probably have not read the Lancet study or given it any thought.

Again, I invite anyone to read a more detailed discussion of the casualty numbers at www.thecosmopolist.blogspot.com. This is not to deny Iraqi suffering or to diminish the tragedy of all civilian deaths, but you might consider that Iraqis themselves have told researchers that they thougth the war was right or absolutely right as opposed to wrong at a margin of 48% to 39%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/15_03_04_iraqsurvey.pdf

6:28 PM  
Blogger The Cat's Dream said...

Dear friend,

Please take a better look at the data from the United Nations Development Programme:

Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004
Education

Iraq’s educational system used to be among the best in the region; one of the country’s most important assets remains its well-educated people. The results of education reform in the 1970s and 1980s are evident in the high literacy rates in the adult population. However, over the past two decades, wars, sanctions, and harsh economic conditions have taken a toll on the educational system.

The youth (aged 15-24) literacy rate is 74%. This is slightly higher than the literacy rate for the population at large yet it is lower than literacy rates for the age group 25-34, indicating that the younger generation lags behind its predecessors on educational performance. The literacy rate for women in Iraq has stagnated and, in some governorates, the level of female illiteracy is very high. The gender gap in literacy is diminishing, but this is due to a drop in the literacy levels of men rather than gains among women.

Since the establishment of the modern state of Iraq in 1921, successive governments have in different ways conceived of education as a principal means of integration. In 1968, eradication of illiteracy was made a primary objective. Educational policy was set by three laws passed in the 1970s: the Illiteracy Eradication Law (1971); the Free Education Law (1974), whereby the state would cover the costs of education at all stages; and the Compulsory Education Law (1978), which made six years of primary education compulsory for all children.

In 1978, the government launched the National Comprehensive Campaign for the Eradication of Illiteracy, which aimed at eradicating illiteracy for all those between the ages of 15 and 45. The campaign mobilized the media, trade unions, and civic organizations; all groups in society were targeted, and there was an emphasis on the full participation and emancipation of women. For example, special facilities were provided to ensure that practical difficulties did not inhibit women from attending literacy classes.

6:39 PM  
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