IBC vs. Lancet - the struggle for the truth continues

Dear Haroon Siddiqui, the Star's editorial page editor emeritus, Totonto Star

I have read with great interest your article, How many civilians have died?

First of all, I want to thank you for reporting on the ORB poll and its results and also for writing about the study by Johns Hopkins School of Public Health published last year.

You write:

Opinion Research Business conducted face-to-face interviews last month with a representative sample of 1,461 Iraqis.

Nearly one in two said their households had suffered at least one death by violence. Many reported multiple deaths. Projecting the findings on to Iraq's 4 million households, ORB estimated the death toll at more than a million.

The methodology is not universally accepted, though variations of it have been used to measure mortality figures in the conflicts in Congo, Kosovo, Sudan, etc.

Questions were also raised last year about a study by Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, done in partnership with Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.

Surveyors knocked on 1,849 doors asking if the household had suffered a death by violence. Projecting the responses nationally, the study put the toll at 654,965.

About a third of the deaths were attributed to coalition forces. Responsibility for 45 per cent of the deaths couldn't be determined.

The Iraq Body Count count, updated daily, stood yesterday at "between 72,596 and 79,187."

The group, run by academics and peace activists, insists on corroborating every death from two reliable sources – police, hospital and mortuary records, media and NGO reports.

The estimate is "irrefutable," says John Sloboda, professor of psychology at Keele University, and a co-founder of IBC. "Nobody can say that fewer people have died. There are many deaths that go unrecorded – kidnappings, assassinations, disappearances, etc.

"The death toll could be twice our number, but it could not possibly be 10 times higher," he told me, referring to the other studies.

When you write “Questions were also raised last year about a study by Johns Hopkins School of Public Health”, probably your readers should have been informed that that study was conducted by the world leaders in the field of epidemiology and published as peer-reviewed scientific papers in the world's leading medical journal, the Lancet.

Knowing this, I was surprised to find in your article the view of Iraq Body Count’s founders John Sloboda and Hamit Dardagan but not the view of those scientists who conducted the peer review study published by the British medical journal The Lancet. Don’t you agree with me that had you spoken also with those scientists and reported their view in your article, you would have offered a fairer and more balanced piece to your readers?

I will CC this e-mail to Les Roberts, co-author of the 2004 and 2006 Lancet reports. In case you wish to write a follow up on this matter, you have his e-mail address now.

Thank you again for writing on this important issue. I really appreciate it.

Respectfully,
Gabriele Zamparini
London

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Reply from Haroon Siddiqui, the Star's editorial page editor emeritus:

I suppose every columnist should talk to everyone, but this is not always possible. I was not writing a news story but a column.
Nonetheless, I would strongly urge you, or whoever, to write a lettertoeded@thestar is reponse, so as to keep various viewpoints going and up for debate. Am all for it.
With letters, brevity (300 words or less) and speed are of the essence, obviously.
Thanks for reading, and writing.

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As suggested by Haroon Siddiqui, the Star's editorial page editor emeritus...

Dear Editor,

I have read with great interest Haroon Siddiqui’s How many civilians have died?

First of all, I want to thank you for reporting on the ORB poll and its results and also for writing about the study by Johns Hopkins School of Public Health published last year.

Siddiqui writes:

“Questions were also raised last year about a study by Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, done in partnership with Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. (…) "The death toll could be twice our number, but it could not possibly be 10 times higher," he [Iraq Body Count’s John Sloboda] told me, referring to the other studies.”

The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health study was conducted by the world leaders in the field of epidemiology and published as peer-reviewed scientific papers in the world's leading medical journal, the Lancet. Knowing this, I was surprised to find in your article the view of Iraq Body Count’s founders John Sloboda and Hamit Dardagan but not the view of those scientists who conducted the peer review study published by the British medical journal The Lancet. Don’t you agree with me that had you spoken also with those scientists and reported their view in your article, you would have offered a fairer and more balanced piece to your readers?

Thank you

Kind regards,
Gabriele Zamparini
London

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UPDATE 30 SEPTEMBER 2007

Dear Haroon Siddiqui,

I have just read your latest article, Seeds of terrorism sown in killing fields of Iraq

Very well done!

As I wrote you about ten days ago, now I think you have offered a fairer and more balanced piece to your readers.

I hope many other mainstream journalists will follow your example.

Thank you

Best wishes,
Gabriele Zamparini
London